What’s on the radar of the world’s largest allocators

By MAUD Capital

Some of the most relevant conversations about investing don't happen on the main stage, but in more private settings, among managers who have to turn complex scenarios into long-term decisions.

It was in that spirit that MAUD Capital took part in the first Brazilian edition of the Global Investment Experience, organized by Markets Group at the Clara Ibiúna Resort. The format favored roundtables and direct exchange between CIOs and managers of large Family Offices and Private Banks.

For MAUD Capital, attending gatherings like this goes well beyond institutional prestige.

“These are the environments where we test our assumptions. No single conversation determines an allocation, but being close to these discussions helps us ask better questions and identify risks from different perspectives,” explains Roberto Vidigal, partner at MAUD.

More important than the event itself are the insights that remain relevant to portfolio decisions. At the request of our clients, Roberto Vidigal has gathered some of the main discussions from those tables and the points that remain on MAUD's radar for investment architecture in the years ahead.

1. The new anatomy of diversification in a fragmented world

The old model of diversification needs an update. Faced with a fragmented global landscape and heavy concentration in U.S. markets, protecting capital requires a three-dimensional view.

“Diversifying today requires a layered analysis,” notes Roberto Vidigal. “First, we look at countries, paying attention to the clarity and stability of institutional rules. Then we move down to sectors and, finally, to the dynamics of each company.”

He points out that the golden rules of allocation remain the same: protect capital before seeking returns, and respect liquidity. However, the gravitational pull of certain sectors now calls for extra caution. Which brings us to the second point.

2. The danger of mistaking narrative for investment in Artificial Intelligence

Artificial Intelligence dominated the agenda, but with a far more critical lens than the euphoria seen among retail investors. Allocators are looking at the physical chain that supports AI, spanning the mining of critical materials, semiconductor manufacturing, power generation and data centers.

The provocation at the tables was clear. Does AI concentrate or distribute economic power?

“The biggest risk today is for investors to mistake a good narrative for a good investment,” warns Vidigal. “Many rush to concentrate their portfolios in the most obvious beneficiaries of AI, forgetting that the prices of these assets already reflect extremely high return expectations. For the allocator, enthusiasm for the technology must be accompanied by hard questions about competitive advantage, capital requirements and, above all, what happens to margins if the technology becomes widely available and barely differentiated.”

3. The “end of the dollar” and currency exposure

Is the world quietly moving away from the dollar? The answer at the roundtables was pragmatic.

It's not about betting on the end of the U.S. currency's dominance, but about recognizing that global indebtedness and geopolitical tensions are testing the foundations of the monetary system.

“In this context, gold and real assets have gained significant ground in the debate on wealth protection, mainly because of the risk of currency debasement and counterparty risk,” summarizes MAUD's partner.

For Brazilian investors, this translates into action. Currency exposure is no longer an accessory tool; it has become a central portfolio decision. The questions we have asked at MAUD since day one are clear. Which currencies are the assets denominated in? What protection is actually in place? How much does that protection cost?

4. Is it still worth seeking alpha in Brazil?

With the Selic rate at high levels and tax-exempt bonds draining liquidity, the bar for taking risk in the domestic market has risen considerably. In addition, technology has democratized analytical tools, reducing the informational edge many local managers enjoyed in the past.

So how can one justify the risk of seeking above-index returns in Brazil?

“The answer depends on where the market inefficiencies are,” says Vidigal. “Brazil's macroeconomic distortions continue to create asymmetries and opportunities for active management. However, the greater ease of investing abroad has broadened the menu. Today, an allocation to Brazil needs to have a very clear and justified role in the portfolio, weighing expected return, risk, liquidity and costs.”

In MAUD's view, local and global allocations don't compete with each other; they are complementary. Global diversification brings resilience, as long as concentrations in local markets are also carefully audited.

Method before movement

The main conclusion from three days immersed with the elite of Wealth Management is not a stock tip for next week. It is the confirmation that, in complex scenarios, process discipline is the greatest competitive advantage a family can have.

“Wealth management requires information, relationships and discipline,” Vidigal stresses. “Being at these tables is one of the ways to keep those three elements alive, translating real market sentiment into decisions designed to protect and grow our clients' legacy,” he concludes.